Energy Prices forecast*
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
Oil $/bbl (Brent)
|
112
|
109.5
|
101
|
99.5
|
96
|
92
|
Oil $/bbl (WTI)
|
94.2
|
98
|
94.4
|
93.1
|
89.5
|
85.5
|
Gas $/mcf
|
2.8
|
3.7
|
4
|
4.15
|
4.6
|
5
|
*The prices are in 2013 money
mcf - hundreds cubic feet.
The prices are a little bit higher from the previous forecast, either
because inflation projected to be much higher or demand stronger.
May 2014 major Energy Companies
analysis:
Remaining Reserves
|
Gazprom*
|
Exxon
Mobil
|
PetroChina
|
Shell
|
Chevron
|
BP
|
ENI
|
Total
|
Statoil
|
Rosneft
|
Oil, mmbbl
|
11,940
|
19,700
|
15,430
|
13,650
|
14,220
|
16,500
|
6,560
|
10,190
|
8,030
|
42,120
|
Gas, bcf
|
547,980
|
131,620
|
79,000
|
83,160
|
86,500
|
72,250
|
35,300
|
58,950
|
46,440
|
71,550
|
Total, mmboe
|
100,040
|
41,630
|
28,600
|
27,500
|
28,700
|
28,530
|
12,440
|
20,000
|
15,770
|
52,300
|
Production Oil, mmboe
|
990
|
2,200
|
2,560
|
1,540
|
1,730
|
2,014
|
830
|
1,170
|
960
|
4,190
|
Production Gas, mmscfd**
|
47,100
|
11.820
|
7,680
|
9,600
|
5,190
|
7,020
|
4,320
|
6,180
|
4,740
|
3,780
|
Production Total '000 boe/d
|
8,830
|
4,170
|
3,830
|
3,150
|
2,600
|
3,100
|
1,550
|
2,200
|
1,750
|
4,860
|
Reserves, years
|
31
|
27
|
20.5
|
24
|
30
|
25
|
22
|
25
|
25
|
29
|
Market Capitalization, USD bn
|
89
|
430
|
222
|
246
|
235
|
150
|
94
|
161
|
93
|
69
|
Dividends paid in 2013, %
|
5.4
|
2.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
3.2
|
4.5
|
5.8
|
4.8
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
US/boe
|
0.89
|
10.3
|
7.8
|
8.9
|
8.2
|
5.25
|
7.6
|
8.05
|
5.90
|
1.31
|
* Gazprom has big exposure to one country
only - Russia
** 6mscf -1boe
For an energy company the most vital source -
it is the mineral base it has and the replacement ratio. It depends how long the company could sustain its production at
current rate. We cannot possible predict what the replacement ratio is going to
be tomorrow.
It is clear how big companies are trying to
balance oil and gas production in the oil equivalent, making it always the
same. There is several main drivers: hedge the risks, as with LNG market
growing, the prices are getting exciding volatile and aggressive. At the moment
this only noticeable on the balance sheets and
households in Asia. In the long
term Western Europe and USA will feel at as well, if decide to witch to LNG
market, or their suppliers will.
Company
|
Gazprom
|
Chevron*
|
Rosneft
|
Exxon
Mobil*
|
BP**
|
Total
|
Statoil
|
Shell*
|
ENI
|
Petrochina
|
Reserves, years
|
31
|
30
|
29
|
27
|
25
|
25
|
25
|
24
|
22
|
20.5
|
Dividends for 2013, %
|
5.4
|
3.2
|
3.8
|
2.5
|
4.5
|
4.8
|
3.9
|
4.5
|
5.8
|
4.5
|
US/boe
|
0.9
|
8.2
|
1.3
|
10.3
|
5.2
|
8
|
5.9
|
8.9
|
7.6
|
7.8
|
*ExxonMobil & Chevron has approximately 20% of the booked
reserves as shale gas. A lot of producers struggling to make any money,
developing shale gas and oil. Shell has
about 10% reserves in it.
** BP is overexposed to USA and has
potentially very expensive resolution in US courts for long time. As an indication the company was forced to pay
over $ 1bn for study on the damage done, which BP is not allowed to see. Company will be milked for a long time.
Based on this analysis I decided not to buy
ExxonMobil, as it is more than generously priced already, while dividends paid
are very low, in spite of the favorable oil prices.
There is four candidates for short investment
: Gazprom, ENI, Petrochina and Shell, dividends wise.
Long term :
Gazprom, Total, Statoil and Rosneft.
Gazprom and Rosneft not only have plenty of
conventional reserves for the years to come, but currently paying dividends to
25% Russian accounting standards. It is intention that they are going to switch
to western standards and policies, which will let dividends go up by 30-50% to
the current level.
PetroChina pays handsome dividends but with
20 years left booked resources it is likely that they will start spending
increasingly more either on exploration or acquisitions to guarantee their
future.
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