Friday, December 23, 2016

December 2016 update ($387,831 +$12,471 or +3%)



Vanguard S&P500 ETF went up by 4% or $2,226 for my portfolio.
Gazprom shares went up by 7% or $8,586 for my portfolio.
Company shares went up by 10% or $2,277.
Rosneft shares went up by 22% or $2,449 for my portfolio.
iShares core DAX wen up 7% or $1,442.
iShares Emerging markets sovereign debt ETF (IEMB )  is marginally up by $80
Dividends Emerging markets sovereign bond (IEMB ) – $86 or 5% annually.
Grand total additions:  $16,986
 ↓ Vanguard Emerging markets ETF is slightly down by 1% or $127.
Emerging markets corporate bond ETF (EMCR) lost 1 or $440
Precious metals are down by 8% or $792
EUR lost to USD 1%,  for my portfolio it is $2,441
GBP lost to USD  2%, for my portfolio it is $715.
Grand total losses:  $ 4,515

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Financial Independence Family Budget 2007 -2016

     This year I continue to analyse and publish our family budget.  Over the period of 8 years this helped us to understand better our expenses and more accurately plan our future.
     Tracking daily expenses takes no more than a few minutes a day. We are simply doing it in a spreadsheet.  More historical data helps to make sense of it, look at the inflation – actual and imaginary.
    For example, we have been renting out the same house for the last 5 years – home bills (energy, property taxes) cumulatively went up by 12%. As an observation - it is much more beneficial to stay in the same house when renting. Rent rate went by 4% over 5 years (once we moved out the property owner pushed it up by 12%, admittedly the house is still on the market 3 months later).

Financial independence family budget 2016-2007:
Financial independence family budget. True story - http://www.niterainbow.com

Sunday, November 27, 2016

November 2016 update ($375,360 +$13,935 or +4%)

Gazprom shares went up by 13% or $14,715 for my portfolio.
Vanguard Emerging markets ETF went up  by 10% or $6,050.
Company shares went up by 4% or $814.
iShares core DAX wen up 3% or $545.
Vanguard Emerging markets ETF went up by $33.
GBP went up to USD by 4%, for my portfolio it is $1,788.
Grand total additions:  $23,945
iShares Emerging markets sovereign debt ETF (IEMB )  lost 4% or $960
Emerging markets corporate bond ETF (EMCR) lost 3% or $1,440
Precious metals are down by 3% or $285
EUR lost to USD 3%,  for my portfolio it is $7,324

Grand total losses:  $ 10,009

Monday, October 31, 2016

October 2016 update ($361,425 -$6,613 or -2%)

First of I would like to apologise for missing September update. When I looked through the files I could not believe it that I did it.  That was completely unintentional. I accepted a new job, although it is half pay from what I used to have it took a lot of my attention and time  - 50 hours plus working week is a new normal.


↑ Gazprom shares went up by 6% or $5,600 for my portfolio.
↑ Company shares went up by 2% or $623 (including dividends reinvestment).
↑ Rosneft shares went up by  6% or $706.
↑ Emerging markets corporate bond ETF went up by $120.
↑ Dividends Emerging markets sovereign bond (IEMB ) – $192 or 5% annually.
↑ Dividends Vanguard Emerging markets  $196 -  or 1.9% annually.
↑ Dividends Vanguard S&P500 – $279  or 1.8% annually.
Grand total additions: $7,716


↓ Vanguard Emerging markets ETF lost 1% or $101.
↓ Vanguard S&P500 lost 3% or $1,680.↓ iShares core DAX lost 2% or $336.
↓ iShares Emerging markets sovereign debt ETF lost 2% or $560.
↓ Precious metals are down by 6% or $677.
↓ EUR lost to USD 3%,  for my portfolio it is $6,554.
↓GBP lost to USD 9%, for my portfolio it is $4,420.
Grand total losses:  $ 14,328.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

August 2016 update ($367,547 +$15,405 or +4%)

Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for August.
Dividends Rosneft  334 USD or 3% annually
Dividends Gazprom 6,110 USD or 5.8% annually
Dividends Emerging markets sovereign bond (IEMB ) – 101 USD or 4.6% annually.
Vanguard emerging markets (VFEM) up by 297 USD
Rosneft  is up by 693 USD
iShares Core Dax is up by 484 USD
Emerging markets sovereign bond index  (IEMB ) up by 300 USD
Emerging markets corporate bond index  (EMCR) up by 480 USD
EUR is up to USD by 2% or $4,263 USD for my portfolio
GBP is up to USD by 2% or $655 USD for my portfolio
Grand total additions: $ 16,721 USD

Company shares are down by $1,073
Precious metals are down by $249 USD
Grand total losses:  $1,322 USD 

Friday, July 29, 2016

July 2016 update ($352,142 +$838 or +0%)

↑ Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for July.
↑ Vanguard emerging markets (VFEM) up by 693 USD
↑ Vanguard S&P500 is up by 2,310 USD
↑ iShares Core Dax is up by 1,100 USD
↑ Emerging markets sovereign bond index  (IEMB ) up by 300 USD
↑ Emerging markets corporate bond index  (EMCR) up by 680 USD
↑ Precious metals are up by 610 USD
↑ Dividends Vanguard Emerging markets  78 USD -  or 1.5% annually.
↑ Dividends Vanguard S&P500 – 250 USD or 1.8% annually.
↑ Dividends Emerging markets sovereign bond (IEMB ) – 90 USD or 4.2% annually.
↑ Dividends Emerging markets corporate bond index  (EMCR) -904 USD or 4% annually.
Grand total additions: $11,015 USD

↓ Gazprom shares are down by 5,500 USD
↓ Company shares are down by 1,118 USD
↓ Rosneft  are down by 231 USD
↓ EUR is down to USD by 1% for my EUR exposure it is 2,131 USD
↓ GBP is down to USD by 3% for  my GBP exposure it is 1,186 USD
Grand total losses:  $10,166

Thursday, June 30, 2016

June 2016 update ($351,305 +$2,023 or +1%)

↑ Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for June.
↑ Dividends for emerging markets sovereign bonds ETF – 178 USD.
↑ Vanguard emerging markets (VFEM) up by 699 USD
↑ Vanguard S&P500 is up by 167 USD
↑ Company shares are up by  2,359 USD (this is includes reinvested dividends).
↑ Rosneft is up by 233 USD
↑ Emerging markets sovereign bond index up by 660 USD
↑ Emerging markets corporate bond index up by 200 USD
↑ Precious metals are up by 190 USD

Grand total additions:  8,686 $ USD.
↓ Gazprom shares are down by 2,775 USD
↓ GBP is down to USD by 8% or 2,934 USD
↓ iShares Core Dax is down by 955 USD
Grand total losses:  $ 6,664 USD.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

International banking - Global banking – Wealth management

As part of the perks moving to a new job my company offered me a fee free account with one of the very famous and "too big to fail" banks with its overseas branches.
The account is typically available to anybody, who is willing to invest about ~ 400 K USD with the bank.   I opened it up and tried three things with the bank:
-         Applied for a mortgage application.
-         Did some currency exchange.
-         Tested security features.
      Mortgage application was very exhausting – lengthy and tortures. They want to know more than average bank would ask you (for example, separate interview with your partner).  The mortgage advisers would miss interview appointment at very last moment and only notify you by leaving message on the answering machine.
      The end result? Their offer was 1.7% higher than their average retail outlet. The only perceived advantage was they were ready to loan 5 times of your wages, assuming that 25% deposit. I was actually told by the mortgage adviser that as having access to the retail sector, I would be better off there.
      Another example was currency exchange. The bank offers a very convenient feature – you can open one of the currency accounts (15 in total available), so you can keep and spend money in a particular currency.  The bank would issue separate card for each and every account.
   Good on the surface, however there is catch. Their exchange rates are brutal to begin with.  For example USD to YEN exchange rate is 102.8, a bank would buy it 105.3 and sell it as 99.3, the spread is 6%.  It is much higher, than most of the exchange rates in ATMs. It is actually cheaper to go to Japan, withdraw money from an ATM from a USD account  converting it there to Yen in most of the cases. For the less popular currencies the spread is 10%.
      Security is still very traditional – pin codes, there is no calculators to generate random codes for accessing the account, most retail banks are using these days.
     The only advantage I could see in using this bank if you are from a third world country and do not have access to retail services in the US, EU, etc.. This provides you instant access to the mortgages, local credit cards and so on. However you are going to pay a lot extra for it. I decided to abandon using the account, luckily it was free for me, there is not much use.  I could have a better mortgage, exchange rates and security with my average bank.
      Have you got experience with global banking / wealth management and if yes, what was it?

Thursday, May 26, 2016

May 2016 update ($349,281 -$7,507 or -2%)



↑ Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for May.
↑ Received additional 12 company shares as part of the dividends reinvested (~ $275).
↑ Dividends Vanguard SPX500 – $ 280 USD  or 1.6% annually.
↑ Vanguard S&P500 is up by $499 USD
↑ Dividends - Emerging markets sovereign debt (iShares EM RMK SOUV BD) – $ 97 USD or 6% annually.
↑ GBP  is slightly recovered to USD - $ 478 USD or 1%
↑ Precisions metals are slightly up $98 USD - 1%.
↑ Emerging markets corporate bond ETF - $ 40 USD
Grand total additions:  $ 5,492 USD

↓ Vanguard emerging markets are down by $500 USD
↓ Gazprom shares are down $8,325 USD
↓ Company shares are down by $1,019 USD
↓ Rosneft  is down by $ 466 USD
↓ DAX composite ETF is down by $200 USD
↓ Emerging markets corporate bond index is down by $260 USD
↓ EUR is lost to USD about 1% or $2,145 USD
Grand total losses:  $ 12,915USD 

Thursday, April 28, 2016

April 2016 update ($356,789 +$33,661 or +10%)

Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for April
Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) is up by $ 706
Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) is up by $1,512
Gazprom shares is up by $19,600
Company shares are down by $3,065
Rosneft shares are up by $1,646
iShares Core DAX up by $ 1,389 USD
iShares Emerging markets sovereign bonds ETF is up by $300
iShares Emerging markets corporate bonds ETF is up by $560
GBP is up to USD, for my portfolio it is $211
Precious metals are down by $679
Grand total additions:  $ 33,661

Grand total losses:  none

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

March 2016 update ($323,128 +$21,513 or +7%)



↑ Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for March
↑ Dividends - Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA)  - $283 USD or 2% annually
↑ Dividends - Emerging markets sovereign debt (iShares EM RMK SOUV BD) - $279 USD or 5% annually
↑ Dividends - Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) - $30  USD or 1% annually
↑ Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) is up by $ 726
↑ Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) is up by $495
↑ Gazprom shares is up by $8,250
↑ Rosneft shares are up by $1,155
↑ iShares Core DAX up by $220 USD
↑ iShares Emerging markets sovereign bonds ETF is up by $660
↑ iShares Emerging markets corporate bonds ETF is up by $1,440
↑ EUR is up to USD, for my portfolio it is $3,761
↑ GBP is up to USD, for my portfolio it is $549
Grand total additions:  $ 21,848
↓ Precious metals are down by $329
↓ Company shares are down by $200
Grand total losses:  $ USD 529

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Energy Stocks 2016



Energy Prices forecast

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Oil $/bbl*
54
55
60
70
86.6
88.3
Oil  $/bbl* (2015 assumptions)
60
70
75
92
95
98
Gas $/mcf
2.9
3.13
3.3
3.9
4.0
4.1
Gas $/mcf (2015 assumptions)
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.5
4.6
4.9
* Brent Oil price
mcf - hundreds cubic feet (North America, Henry Hub).  Inflation assumed at 2% a year.


March 2016 energy stocks review:

Financial Independence review - Energy Companies. Independent - http://www.niterainbow.com
 Conversion factors:

cubic metre of gas (m3 gas) = 0.005896 boe
cubic foot of gas (cf gas)  = 0.00016696 boe
cubic foot of gas (cf gas)  = 0.028317 m3 gas
tonne of LNG (t LNG) = 1,368.40 m3 gas

Friday, February 26, 2016

February 2016 update ($301,615 +$20,123 or +7%)



Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for February
Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) is up by $425
Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) is up by $1,308
Gazprom shares is up by $7,085
Company shares are up by $2,392
Rosneft shares are up by $1,145
iShares Emerging markets sovereign bonds ETF is up by $540
iShares Emerging markets corporate bonds ETF is up by $840
Precious metals are up by $1,246
EUR is slightly up to USD, for my portfolio it is $1,774
Grand total additions:  $20,755

iShares Core DAX lost $632 USD
Grand total losses:  $ USD 632

Monday, February 22, 2016

Assets Allocation


Here is my current allocation at the beginning of respective years:

2013
2014
2015
2016
Aspired
Shares
15%
67%
51%
38%
10%
Index Funds
0%
0%
22%
30%
50%
Bonds
0%
0%
0%
20%
30%
Precious  metals
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Cash
79%
29%
24%
9%
7%
 Total, USD K
230
304
273
281

Developed economy
0%
0%
16%
27%
50%
Emerging market
15%
67%
57%
61%
40%
Liquid assets
85%
33%
27%
12%
10%

I am moving in the desired direction and the plan is to keep investing mainly in index funds in developed economies and bond index, this is to balance it towards more stable but less delivering assets. I will also need to reduce my exposure to individual stocks, regardless how attractive they may look.  If I would have extra cash to invest, perhaps I could tolerate elevated risk levels more easily.