Thursday, April 14, 2022

March 2022 update ($838,599 +$84613 or +%11.2)

↑ Financial independence savings for last month $68,000
↑ US 500 Stock Index Fund is up by $17,567 or +6.2%
↑ Global Small Cap Index is down by $1,406 or +0.9%
↑ Growth fund is up by 3,054 or +4.5%
Grand total additions: $90,027 USD

↓ Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund is down by $1,059 or -0.7%
↓ Eurozone Stock Index Fund is down by $757 or -0.5%
↓ EUR is down to USD by 0.9%, so for my portfolio its $2,544
↓ GBP is down to USD by 1.5%, so for my portfolio its $1,084
Grand total losses: $5,444 USD

Financial independence March 2022 update


 The most recent actions by the USA are continuation of “American First” programme.  This is probably beginning of the end of globalization as I knew it. Globalisation was: cheap energy, promotion of free trade,  low interest rates, low inflation and promotion of technology.  New: warmongering, planned economy, sanctions, trade barriers, high inflation.

 Its genuinely uncertain moment when a choice to be made between political ambitions vs. Western citizens wellbeing. In EU there is ever growing trend of childless leaders. A few specific but not isolated examples:

  •  Emmanuel Macron French president installed in power by business - born in 1977
  •  Angela Dorothea Merkel an eternal Germany leader (2006 to 2021) – born in 1954
  •  Theresa May British prime minister (2016 to 2019)  the only second woman in that post – born in 1956.
  •  Nicola Sturgeon First minister of Scotland, born in 1970
  •  Mark Rutte dutch prime minister (2010-2022), born in 1967
  •  Stefan Löfven swedish prime minister (2014-2021), born in 1957
  •  Jean-Claude Juncker head of EU commission (2019-2014) born in 1954
  •  Xavier Bettel Luxemburg president (2013-2022) born in 1973

This leads to short term decisions, as tomorrow does not exist for them. So economic wars launched, and casualties will be ordinary citizens and their kids.  Freedom natural gas promised by the USA to Europe isn’t coming. Inflation in the USA and Western europe is at levels not seen in 40 years.

Of course, current focus on Ukraine, gave the USA an excuse about deeper fault line:  between China and the West. In fact anybody who has hope to maintain business with China or come there one day, should keep their mouth closed and avoid any antagonism.

Mitsubishi UFG’s US team sees that there is 45/55 percent bet that USA leadership will lead country into stagnation (5%) , stagflation (20%) or recession (30%).  Everybody else seems to have 60/40 bet on the same outcome.  The rest of the world will follow, for the time being.

International Monetary Fund (the USA sponsored and chaired institution) in their October 2021 assessment under its bulgarian director said that rapid price growth should gradually decrease as supply-demand imbalances wane in 2022 and monetary policy in major economies respond.  Of course, the fund was not naïve, it was playing for the time, giving the rich time to prepare themselves for what is about to come.

 In the USA mortgage applications are already down 10 percent year over year basis, at the end of March 2022.

Labour market is very tight in the USA, fueling wage growth (currently 6.5%) and leading to the inflation. Previously monetary tightening at such conditions was the only way to control inflation but that will surely trigger recession. Historically during an average USA recession, the S&P drops by a third over 13 months.

Any growth in the market will now need to be discounted for outrages inflation.  What mass media doesn’t tell us, that there is another way: the way where people’s well being is put first, artificial barriers are removed enabling the free economy to run it course.  Why should the poorest civilians bear brunt of childless politicians and their ambitions?


  1. Congratulations on a decent month! It sure has been a strange year so far with lots of turbulence in the markets.

    1. Hello Nomadic Samuel, first of all many thanks for stopping by. I will start brace myself for the recession in the next two years. For now, mainly meaning hoarding cash, investing in precious metals (if I can). How do you prepare yourself for the turbulence and the volatility?