Observations:
Year on Year growth is incredible - $194 K USD. It was interesting to read article in the journal in which Walmart CEO stated that “AI is going to change literally every job” as the result the company is planning to maintain headcount (sounds like a vast chicken farm) of 2.1 million people globally while sales and revenue climbs. While there is red hot investment and a lot of companies predict to be leaner (less chickens at farms) it will hurt economy in the long term, unless the people will find the jobs.
As I am writing this post USA is government preparing for a shutdown. Gold has climbed to a new all time high of 3,870 USD for a troy ounce (31.1 g).
There is a lot of uncertainty in the market, as profits are slow to follow equity growth / evaluation. U.S. listed exchange traded funds received over $900 billion on inflow so far this year. There is further analysis which forecasts another 11% increase of S&P500 growth over next twelve month (over 3% attributed to inflation aka consumer price index).
Some people are so worried, that buying Microsoft bonds, which are yielding less that US Treasuries (albeit the spread is low 3.63 vs. 3.67% a year until June 2027 ).
There are certainly consequences of Trump administration economic policies - millions of borrowers are at risk of wages being confiscated, if they haven’t made payments on their student loans (since Biden extended the corona virus pandemic pause on student-debt repayment). Imagine, unpaid federal student-loan balance has swelled to $1.66 trillion, from $516 billion nearly two decades ago. For millions, the loans helped them earn degrees that lifted their earnings potential, making the debt burden more than worth it.
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