Western Europe is full of dissatisfied workers protesting government policy. I looked into the proposed change to do fact checking. There are two main issues which led to the current situation:
- Pay-as-you-go pensions. Most Western European governments fund pensions this way. The income tax of today's workers pays today's retirees. Nothing is saved for you. Your pension depends on enough workers being there when you retire.
- Falling birth rates. Housing costs, insecure jobs and general uncertainty lead many people to decide against having children. Among my small group of Western European colleagues, over 30% have no children and plan to keep it that way. Overall national fertility data points the same way.
Fewer workers means a bigger gap in a pay-as-you-go system. Among many options – stop funding wars, do better tax collection from the rich, the governments then close the gap by raising the retirement age, cutting benefits or quietly changing indexation. Pensioners and workers pay for it, not the state.
Pension changes country by country
England. The UK state pension currently rises each year by the highest of inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%.
The idea or triple lock was introduced to lift the pensioners out of poverty. In 1979, the state pension was worth 26% of average earnings, but the link with wages was cut in 1980 by the daughter of a grocery shop owner, when she became a prime minister. This plunged British pensioners back into poverty where the state pension became 16% of average earnings. Pensioners were becoming relatively poor members of society,. Until the triple lock was introduced in 2010. The current full state pension in the UK is 12,547 british pounds a year (~16,500 USD a year). To earn it you need to have full-time job and pay taxes for 35 years. The retirement age is 67 years (projected to go up).
Two further points:
- Reports say the government plans to redirect £15 billion a year from 2030, rising to £50 billion by 2050, toward a National Care Service. That most UK care homes are privately run, so public money out of pensioners pockets would flow to private operators.
- In 1993 almost every FTSE 100 company offered new staff a final salary pension (meaning that you pension is %, of your final salary with the company. At that time loyalty was appreciated and employment was for life). By 2026 reportedly none does. Risk has moved from employers to individuals.
France. The retirement age was raised from 62 to 64, after a previous rise from 60 in 2010–2011. A full pension needs 43 years of contributions. Workers also pay into compulsory supplementary schemes, with contributions of roughly 6.2% to 17% of salary. Minimum pension ceiling capped at 1,400 EUR a month (~1,600 USD) a year.
Czech Republic. The retirement age is heading toward 67, with a 40-year contribution target. The government removed additional state pension increases previously tied directly to wage growth to contain public spending. Pensions account for roughly a third of Czech state budget spending and the country's fertility rate fell to 1.28 in 2025. The usual advices from highly paid private consultancy firms - lower starting pensions, reduced inflation indexing, penalizing early retirement. You should work at least for 40 years. The pension is reduced by 6% for every year taken early. Chech pension is €10,915 a year (~$12,030).
Denmark. Denmark has legislated to raise its retirement age to 70, phased in over the coming years.
Historical lessons: the social contract has been rewritten before
Pensions were designed around short lives. Bismarck's 1889 German scheme paid from age 70, when few workers lived that long. Today's pension ages sit against much longer lifespans, so the promise has become much more expensive.
Privatisation has a poor record.
- Chile's 1981 privatised system left many retirees with low pensions and led to years of protest.
- Robert Maxwell looted the Mirror Group pension funds in 1991.
- Hungary (2010) and Poland (2013) took private pension assets back into state control.
Austerity hit pensioners first. During the euro crisis, Greece cut pensions repeatedly after 2010. People who had paid in for 40 years were told the deal had changed.
Citizens have pushed back before. The French strikes against the 1995 JuppĂ© plan, and the large 2010, 2019–20 and 2023 protests, show that pension reform can topple governments or stall for years.
How the western european governments break the deal
The pattern repeats across countries:
- Taxes stay high. Workers keep paying in on the promise of a pension.
- The promise changes later. The retirement age rises, indexation weakens or the qualifying years increase, usually after workers have already paid in for decades.
- Cuts are called "reform". Governments cite demographics, which they did little to address through housing, wages or childcare.
- Consultants draw up the plans. Cutting starting pensions, lowering inflation indexing and penalising early retirement come from the same playbook in every country.
- Workers carry the risk. Employers have dropped final salary schemes, and people are told to save privately.
When housing is unaffordable, jobs are insecure, public money funneled towards wars, same sex unions are advertised at schools and on state television the people have fewer children. That worsens the pension gap, and the governments responsible then use it to justify further cuts. The social contract says you pay in and you are looked after. Workers see that contract being rewritten without their consent, and the protests are the result.
This will lead to worsening economy, as the people will start spending less and saving more. For example, Chinese households typically save roughly 20% to 30%+ of their disposable income, driven by precautionary motives, weaker social safety nets, and cultural norms. In contrast, the household/personal savings rate across the Euro Area and european union generally hovers between 11% and 15% (with variations by country).
No comments:
Post a Comment