Thursday, April 28, 2016

April 2016 update ($356,789 +$33,661 or +10%)



Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for April
Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) is up by $ 706
Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) is up by $1,512
Gazprom shares is up by $19,600
Company shares are down by $3,065
Rosneft shares are up by $1,646
iShares Core DAX up by $ 1,389 USD
iShares Emerging markets sovereign bonds ETF is up by $300
iShares Emerging markets corporate bonds ETF is up by $560
GBP is up to USD, for my portfolio it is $211
Precious metals are down by $679
Grand total additions:  $ 33,661

Grand total losses:  none

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

March 2016 update ($323,128 +$21,513 or +7%)



↑ Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for March
↑ Dividends - Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA)  - $283 USD or 2% annually
↑ Dividends - Emerging markets sovereign debt (iShares EM RMK SOUV BD) - $279 USD or 5% annually
↑ Dividends - Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) - $30  USD or 1% annually
↑ Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) is up by $ 726
↑ Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) is up by $495
↑ Gazprom shares is up by $8,250
↑ Rosneft shares are up by $1,155
↑ iShares Core DAX up by $220 USD
↑ iShares Emerging markets sovereign bonds ETF is up by $660
↑ iShares Emerging markets corporate bonds ETF is up by $1,440
↑ EUR is up to USD, for my portfolio it is $3,761
↑ GBP is up to USD, for my portfolio it is $549
Grand total additions:  $ 21,848
↓ Precious metals are down by $329
↓ Company shares are down by $200
Grand total losses:  $ USD 529

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Energy Stocks 2016



Energy Prices forecast

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Oil $/bbl*
54
55
60
70
86.6
88.3
Oil  $/bbl* (2015 assumptions)
60
70
75
92
95
98
Gas $/mcf
2.9
3.13
3.3
3.9
4.0
4.1
Gas $/mcf (2015 assumptions)
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.5
4.6
4.9
* Brent Oil price
mcf - hundreds cubic feet (North America, Henry Hub).  Inflation assumed at 2% a year.


March 2016 energy stocks review:

Financial Independence review - Energy Companies. Independent - http://www.niterainbow.com
 Conversion factors:

cubic metre of gas (m3 gas) = 0.005896 boe
cubic foot of gas (cf gas)  = 0.00016696 boe
cubic foot of gas (cf gas)  = 0.028317 m3 gas
tonne of LNG (t LNG) = 1,368.40 m3 gas

Friday, February 26, 2016

February 2016 update ($301,615 +$20,123 or +7%)



Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for February
Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) is up by $425
Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) is up by $1,308
Gazprom shares is up by $7,085
Company shares are up by $2,392
Rosneft shares are up by $1,145
iShares Emerging markets sovereign bonds ETF is up by $540
iShares Emerging markets corporate bonds ETF is up by $840
Precious metals are up by $1,246
EUR is slightly up to USD, for my portfolio it is $1,774
Grand total additions:  $20,755

iShares Core DAX lost $632 USD
Grand total losses:  $ USD 632

Monday, February 22, 2016

Assets Allocation


Here is my current allocation at the beginning of respective years:

2013
2014
2015
2016
Aspired
Shares
15%
67%
51%
38%
10%
Index Funds
0%
0%
22%
30%
50%
Bonds
0%
0%
0%
20%
30%
Precious  metals
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Cash
79%
29%
24%
9%
7%
 Total, USD K
230
304
273
281

Developed economy
0%
0%
16%
27%
50%
Emerging market
15%
67%
57%
61%
40%
Liquid assets
85%
33%
27%
12%
10%

I am moving in the desired direction and the plan is to keep investing mainly in index funds in developed economies and bond index, this is to balance it towards more stable but less delivering assets. I will also need to reduce my exposure to individual stocks, regardless how attractive they may look.  If I would have extra cash to invest, perhaps I could tolerate elevated risk levels more easily.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

January 2016 update ($281,248 -$14,288 or -5%)

Accumulated $4,000 USD as part of my annual saving goal for January
I received some additional vested Company shares. Total amount vent from 272 to 624.  The share  price collapsed by 40% over the course of the year, so the increase in the number of shares added  $6,208  to my portfolio.
Received Vanguard S&P 500 (VUSA) – 178 EUR or 1.81% annually.
Received Vanguard Emerging markets (VFEM) – 52.5 EUR or 1.71% annually.
Grand total additions:  $ USD 10,460
 
Vanguard emerging markets ETF lost $1,504 USD
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF lost $3,837 USD
Gazprom shares lost $13,080 USD
Company shares lost $1,831 USD
Rosneft shares lost $801 USD
iShares Core DAX lost $916 USD
EUR lost to USD 1% or $1,774 USD
GBP lost to USD 6% or $1,372
Precious metals lost 2% or $179 USD
Grand total losses:  $ USD 25,294
There is a difference in $546 USD this is attributed to the fact that I spent some GBP to buy ETF nominated in USD.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Real life portfolio performance 2015 and retrospective


2015 Values
Performance indicator
Comments
Absolute return
$, K
%
This is without taking into account accumulated $ 48 K
-25
-9
Relative return
S&P 500, %
Portfolio, %
 Exposure to emerging markets and energy sectors
0.8
- 9
Cash accumulated in 2010 money
Planned $, K
Actual $, K
On target.
48
48
Personal plan
in 2010 money
Planned $, K
330
Actual $, K
244

The  target is not becoming currently achievable, as at the beginning of the year I have had only $244 K in 2010 money, so I had to reduce it for 2016, so it is realistic:
Year
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Money of the day
actual
153,400
119,800
165,600
226,800
298,400
288,608
295,536

Target





370,000

350,000
Inflation %

2
3.5
3
4
4
3
4
Cumulative inflation

1.02
1.06
1.09
1.13
1.18
1.21
1.26
2010 money
153,400
117,451
156,967
209,032
265,244
244,583
244,244
277,777
In another words if in 2010 you would have $ 10,000 and keep it, it worth $7,930 today.